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The performance differentiation of power battery industry chain is obvious
2017/11/23 view:
The subsidy this the power battery to lower the cost, while the raw material price increases further squeezing the profit space of the industrial chain. This year, the new energy automotive industry chain more than a number of links operating pressure. Three quarterly data show that the battery materials related to the power battery, electrolyte, diaphragm and other segments of the enterprise performance growth rate has slowed down significantly, the decline in gross margin, increase in profits and net profit growth is not uncommon. In contrast, profit from raw material prices, upstream raw materials manufacturers and cathode material manufacturers share prices and performance "QI", a number of corporate profits increased by more than 100%.
Analysts pointed out that the withdrawal pressure and upstream raw materials price rise "double attack" under the car will reduce the pressure to power battery link. Since this year, the price of power batteries dropped at 20%-30%, and to the high rate of Mao, overcapacity, weak bargaining power of the link to the first conduction pressure.
Significant differentiation in performance
From the three-quarterly situation, the subsidy this has a certain impact on the performance of the whole vehicle enterprise.
such as Jianghuai automobile, the first three quarters of revenue of 35.541 billion yuan, a small decline of 6.79%, belonging to listed companies shareholders net profit of 218 million yuan, the year-on-year decline of 73.24%. For the main reason for the net profit decline over the same period last year, Jianghuai Motor said that the new energy vehicles subsidies this and passenger car sales decline caused by. Also such as BYD, the first three quarters of revenue rose 1.56% year-on-year, attributable to the shareholders of listed companies net profit fell 23.82%. A number of brokerage analysts pointed out that the short-term performance of the company is mainly due to subsidies this and sales costs and the increase in financial costs and other factors.
"The whole vehicle enterprise in the industrial chain of discourse power relatively strong." After the new Energy vehicle subsidy scheme is implemented, the whole vehicle enterprise will transfer the subsidy standard this pressure gradually upstream to the industrial chain. This year, midstream enterprises, including batteries, electrical control of these links to the price of products have been under greater pressure. "Shenzhen, a listed equity brokerage, said new energy vehicle analysts.
China Letter Securities analysts pointed out that the battery link to withstand the industrial chain upstream and downstream pressure is greatest. 2016 power battery cost about 2.2-2.3 yuan/wh interval, 2017 down to 1.6-1.7 yuan/WH range, the battery link price near 30%.
Correspondingly, the three-quarterly report revealed that the battery materials related to the power battery, electrolyte, diaphragm and other segments of the business performance growth slowed markedly, the decline in gross margin, resulting in "No increase in income" and net profit growth is not uncommon.
Diaphragm leading enterprise star source material, the first three quarters of revenue increased by 1.15%, attributable to the shareholders of listed companies, net profit fell 25.73% year-on-year. China's domestic electrolyte market share of nearly 20% of heaven-sent materials, the first three quarters of revenue growth of 13.96%, attributable to the shareholders of listed companies, net profit fell 12.26% Year-on-year, the company is expected to 2017 net profit change in the range of-25% to 5%. Electrolyte solute lithium hexafluorophosphate, the mainstream provider of more fluorine, the first three quarters also appeared "increase not benefit" of the situation, the first three quarters of revenue growth 17.4% Year-on-year, net profit fell to 45.02%, the company is expected to reduce the annual net profit of 50%-20%.
And benefited from the rise in raw materials prices, upstream raw materials manufacturers and cathode material manufacturers appear stock prices and performance "QI" posture, a number of corporate profit growth of more than 100%. Upstream raw materials suppliers, China friends cobalt industry, gan Front lithium industry, Grammy, the first three quarters of revenue respectively compared to the same period last year 76.19%, 40.51%, 40.34%, net profit year-on-year increase 413 times times, 106%, 92%, this year, the share price has risen to 175.72%, 226.77%, 49.11%. Cathode material manufacturers when the technology, the first three quarters of revenue rose 58.2% year-on-year, net profit growth of 192%, this year's share price has risen nearly one-third.
Encounter multiple attacks
"This year, the entire power battery revenue and last year almost, shipments of basic and last year flat." This is larger than expected at the beginning of the year. This year, the development of new energy vehicles to switch runways, from relying on all-electric buses to the main passenger car. And an electric bus is almost 10 times times the battery installed capacity of a passenger car, electric bus production and sales decline exceeding expectations, resulting in the battery installed capacity of the early advance. At the same time, if next year will not be back, the end of this year to grab the situation may not be as prominent as the previous two years. "The decline in subsidies will affect the overall profitability of the industry as the entire revenue plate is unchanged," said Merko, a lithium analyst. ”
"The whole car enterprises first feel the pressure to return, but the car enterprises speak large, you can request power battery price reduction, forcing the power battery to strengthen the cost control," a upstream raw materials listed enterprises Dong Secret told the Chinese securities reporter, "This also led to the power battery manufacturers encountered reshuffle." Since this year, there are 30 small and medium-sized battery factory has been eliminated out, the remaining power battery enterprises to control the cost, have to take the gross margin, overcapacity, bargaining power of the weak links, such as diaphragm, electrolyte and cathode, and so on, this year, the price has declined sharply downstream factors. ”
Merko pointed out that diaphragm enterprises are more uncomfortable. "A few years ago the diaphragm industry gross profit margin is too high, the battery factory should first move them." In addition, before the high gross margin of industry led to a large number of enterprises to expand capacity, the two or three-year production capacity gradually released, but also to the downstream to provide the possibility of lower prices. This year, the diaphragm enterprise gross profit margin is very large, the year-on-year decline of nearly 30%, is expected next year prices will continue to decline. ”
For cathode materials, electrolyte two links, the price of raw materials and downstream prices, the industry's profit margins have been greatly squeezed. "Affected by the supply side reform, the price of anode raw materials has risen rapidly this year, such as Needle coke from the beginning of the 3500 yuan/ton now up to more than 15000 yuan/ton." But the negative material itself is not high, and in the whole industry chain system of the weak voice, it is difficult to transfer the cost pressure out, affected by downstream prices, the overall price stability in the year down. At present, some negative materials enterprises have been faced with a difficult profit. "The above-mentioned joint-stock brokerage new Energy car analyst told China Securities News reporter.
For the solute end (lithium hexafluorophosphate), a new energy auto listed company, Mr. Dong, pointed out that last year the market demand is larger, but the capacity is not enough, so that the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rise much. This year, the gradual release of production capacity, product demand reduction, at the same time downstream lower prices, resulting in significant downward price. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate last year sold up to more than 300,000/ton, now only 140,000/ton. While prices are falling, the price of hydrofluoric acid and lithium carbonate, the main feedstock, is rising. For example, hydrofluoric acid quotes from the beginning of the 6000 yuan/ton has risen sharply to close to 10,000 yuan/ton. Lithium hexafluorophosphate is a tough day for producers.
The lower price of the solute end (lithium hexafluorophosphate) is further transmitted to the electrolyte manufacturer. Pacific Securities analysts pointed out that the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate led to the simultaneous reduction of electrolyte prices, the price from 80,000 yuan/ton down to 50,000-55,000 yuan/ton.
"Cathode material manufacturers have had a comfortable day, especially the manufacturers of ternary batteries." The first two years of the cathode factory more miserable, gross margin can reach 10% is good, basically do not make money, downstream also has not been to price increases. This year, through this wave of raw materials prices, the cathode factory took the opportunity to raise prices, the former gross profit margin of the basic repair, the current gross margin of about 20%-30%. Merko pointed out.
Profitability will improve.
According to the notice on the promotion of financial support policy for new energy vehicles in 2016-2020, the new Energy vehicle subsidy standard in 2017 to 2018 fell by 20% on the basis of 2016, and 2019 to 2020 subsidies fell by 40% on the basis of 2016.
"It is rumored that 2018 will be based on this year's advance 20%." If the news is true, it will create pressure on the whole industry chain. We communicate with some of the car companies that they are prepared to undertake further this pressure, if they return 20% next year, they will bear more cost pressure, reduce the pressure of some midstream links, to ensure the balanced development of the entire industrial chain. An analyst told China Securities News.
A large-scale stock brokerage analyst pointed out that the power battery upstream raw material costs are less likely to decline overall, is expected to remain high. "In the Overseas market MB rise, the downstream rigidity demand is exuberant and the domestic and international price difference repair triple positive, the domestic price of cobalt products is expected to continue to rise; lithium carbonate, South America expanded capacity in the previous two years will be a large-scale release of lithium carbonate in the second half of next year or into a downward channel; the price of graphite and nickel depends on the pace of supply-side reform next year. ”
For the downstream and raw material prices of the double squeeze electrolyte and anode materials enterprises, industry insiders pointed out that the industry profitability will be improved. With next year's electric vehicle production and marketing volume to pull the demand for rapid growth, as well as upstream hydrofluoric acid, lithium carbonate and other raw materials prices to support the formation of its price, short-term estimates of six lithium fluoride phosphate prices continue to explore the small space, electrolyte prices are expected to stabilise. "The future trend of the cathode plant is expected to improve," he said. Procurement generally according to the year, next year to talk about prices, cost factors will be included, the negative price may be raised. ”
"For the diaphragm, with further pressure from the battery factory and the influx of industry competitors, diaphragm prices are expected to continue to fall next year," he said. Only through technology research and development to improve product quality rate, it may survive. Merko pointed out.
"Energy-saving and new Energy Vehicle Technology roadmap" proposed that by 2020, pure electric power new energy vehicle monomer energy density reached 350wh/kg, the battery system cost of 1 yuan/wh. And after this round of reduction, the power battery cost distance target is still a long way. According to the market-oriented competition, the enterprises can only rely on the continuous innovation and upgrade, launch the quality products to improve the core competitiveness, pull the sales growth and digest the direct impact of the decline of the terminal subsidy.
Institutions bullish on new energy automobile industry chain
Ministry of Industry recently announced the fuel integration compensation policy, 2016, 2017, the enterprise average fuel consumption negative points can not compensate for zero, will affect the standard of the production of fuel vehicles and the launch of new products. Affected by the news, the new Energy Vehicle index changed its downward trend since October 9, rising three consecutive days. Several institutions pointed out that the new energy automobile industry chain will usher in the Tuyere.
Third quarter results
Three-quarter new Energy Vehicle theme Fund performance frequency. Wind data show that, excluding the newly established fund, in 22 new energy vehicle theme funds, three quarters of 7 funds yield more than 30%, accounting for 31.82%. Among them, the rich-country certification of new energy vehicles B's yield as high as 92.49%, the Bank of China's new energy b yield of 73.6%, Peng-hua certificate new Energy B yield of 60.14%.
As of November 8, according to wind statistics, the 22 new energy vehicles have a positive cumulative yield this year, with 12 funds yielding more than 15% this year, and two funds with better yields--the new energy industry in ANZ and the new energy vehicle B in the rich world--and the yields are up to 47.99%, 31.09%.
The Fund's third quarterly bulletin shows that several new energy vehicle theme funds with better performance recently have a slightly different preference. Xinda ANZ New energy industry focuses on lithium-ion battery module manufacturers Sunwoda and some electronic components manufacturers; In the rich countries, the new energy vehicle B is heavy Cang Gan-Feng lithium, tin-li industry, such as lithium-ion battery upstream raw materials enterprises, at the same time a large amount of BYD, yutong passenger cars, such as the whole vehicle production enterprises; The new energy in the ROC is favored in the lithium industry, Tian Qi li Industry, BYD, but also bought a special change electrician, China nuclear power grid, such as electric units.
The expected Tuyere will be
Recently released the 2016, 2017 degree of fuel integration satisfaction related policies have been concerned. In this regard, ping an securities believes that the policy for the continuation of the dual-integration policy, the new energy industry is expected to usher in rapid growth, maintenance of 2017 years 500,000 passenger car production and marketing forecasts. In the context of the continued growth in the production of new energy vehicles, in the long run, lithium carbonate and other downstream demand is huge, power lithium battery will still be in a high growth cycle, it is recommended to pay attention to the Model3 production of silicon carbon anode application promotion opportunities, as well as cobalt price rise, ternary infiltration to accelerate the dual-driven high nickel ternary material volume price.
Liang believes that the new energy bus subsidy directory since the beginning of the release of slow progress, the first half of the industry's cash flow and order conditions are cold. The second half of the subsidy catalog adjustment in place, 2018 industry subsidies this and 2017 industry costs drop, will drive the industry EPS steady growth. is still a good time for the layout of new energy buses, the proposed long-term attention to the two ends of the industrial chain lithium ore, high-end lithium-ion equipment manufacturers, the whole vehicle leading enterprises.
Xin Feng Mingyuan, a new Energy industry fund manager, is reminding investors that this year's market style has the characteristics of a volatile city and a structural bull market, and that the new energy vehicles have a bigger rise. The New Energy vehicle field is still in the early stage of development, many entrants, the industry competition is intense, needs to sift the investment target carefully.
Open Source Securities analyst Li Wenjing pointed out that the policy to support the new energy car industry sustained and healthy development, long-term optimistic about the new energy automotive industry chain. In the short term, the four quarter is the new energy vehicle season, judging the four quarter of production and sales volume will be significantly increased. It is recommended to focus on the outstanding resource advantages of lithium upstream raw materials enterprises, with scale advantages, high technical threshold and enter the new energy passenger car supply chain, as well as competitive advantage of the leading-type vehicle enterprises.
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